History is not a record of every circumstance, but of those only that
were deemed worthy of perpetuation; and even were all circumstances
known to us, we must receive them as seen through the opinions of the
historian, while the present is as it seems to us; so two cases, while
appearing to agree, may in reality be very unlike. And, in addition to
this, so many are the events that precede any given effect, that it is
impossible to determine which is the cause, and which only the
circumstance attending that cause. So, while our literature is flooded,
with so many 'demonstrations from history,' many a philosopher finds
himself in the situation of the sage who demonstrated that 'Tenterton
steeple' was the 'cause of Godwin Sands.'
From this it has arisen that practical men have come to despise not only
all reasonings from history, but social science altogether, deeming it a
pleasant tissue of thoughts that may amuse a leisure hour, but nothing
of practical importance. On most subjects this is unfortunately true,
but sometimes in the state of a nation there are indications, repeated
again and again, showing the existence of a cause which, unless
counteracted, will eventually produce certain disastrous effects. Though
seen and pointed out by many wise men, still the existence of the cause
cannot be logically proved, nor the time of its effect mathematically
calculated.
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